How we measured it

Morgan Stanley’s annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025, Wealth Management loans: “Securities-based lending and Other” of $109,201 million, and margin loans of $31,214 million. The first category includes lending other than securities-based loans, so read it as an upper bound. That most of it is borrowed to avoid selling is our reading, not the filing’s.

The gaps between consecutive updates of the reference equity price feed on Robinhood Chain, read on-chain across weekends in August and September 2026. The longest, 80.8 hours, spans the Labor Day weekend. The weekend drawn on the overview is 28–31 August 2026: last update Friday 16:18 UTC, next update Monday 00:00 UTC.

An around-the-clock price source, sampled at ten-minute resolution across one full 48-hour weekend. All 288 expected points were present, and the longest gap between two of them was 600 seconds.

The share of SPY Stock Token transfers on Robinhood Chain that occurred on a Saturday or a Sunday, over 69 consecutive days. A perfectly even week would give 28.6%.

The per-token limit that lending markets on this chain applied to large-cap Stock Tokens such as SPY, NVDA and TSLA, as read from their public interfaces in September 2026.

The interactive model takes the worst one percent of outcomes over a three-day closed market, from assumed volatilities and correlations, doubles it as a stress, and holds back a further ten percent. The assumptions exist to show the mechanism. They are not the parameters Tapehouse lends on, which are published with the backtest.

The band answers one question: what is this token worth right now, and how sure are we. Its centre is the live around-the-clock price. Three things widen it: live sources that disagree, a price that is moving fast, and fewer sources answering. A reference feed that has gone quiet for the weekend is set aside, never averaged in, and never used to widen the band on its own.

How far the price might move before anyone can act is a different question. It belongs to the margin engine, not to the band.

With one source live, as at a weekend, the band is ±0.55%. That calibration is provisional: it rests on a small number of reopenings in a calm month.

For each reopening we take the band from the last sample before 00:00 UTC on Monday, when the reference equity feed on Robinhood Chain resumes, and compare its centre with the first price that feed publishes. Nothing later than the band’s own timestamp is used.

The first weekend, 21 September 2026, was graded after the fact from our own minute-by-minute capture and is marked as such. Later entries are sealed and timestamped before the reopening.

The same band fed a single, deliberately weak source: the thirty-minute time-weighted price of the Uniswap v3 pool for each token against USDG, built from swap events read from the chain and ending at the reopening. It is graded the same way, against the first reference print after a silence of thirty hours or more. It covers the nine weekends for which those pools existed, from 27 July to 21 September 2026: thirty reopenings across NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and SPY.

At a weekend the on-chain price carries a premium or a discount of up to about 1.2%, because liquidity is thin. That gap is not noise to a lender: it is the price a liquidation would actually get. Tapehouse accounts for it in the margin engine.

The change from the last reference print before each weekend to the first one after it, over all forty-eight reopenings of NVDA, TSLA, AAPL and SPY since 1 July 2026, read from the chain. The median is 0.34% and the largest 1.33%.